Historical analog
2020-21 Brazilian drought — coffee + sugar squeeze
Magnitude: Mato Grosso rainfall 50% below normal in Feb
Price impact: Arabica +30%, sugar +60% over 6 months
Downstream effects: BRL weakness amplified losses for importers · Starbucks margin hit
Run this scenario
Ask the mesh what happens if this event repeats under current conditions. WeatherPulse cross-queries CommodityWatch + ShippingPulse + NEIP.
If Cerrado rainfall falls 40%+ below normal in Feb-Mar, how do coffee and sugar react?